Saturday, May 17, 2025

Playing The Odds Of Survival



Barring any significant political upheaval and resulting revolution, starting in June, I begin drawing on my Social Security. It's officially approved.

I turn 64 in July, thus I am not at "full" (67) retirement age, but the math just makes sense. There's little value to be found in waiting another 3 years.

And no I'm not retired. I will still work. Just not as much, or for nearly as much.

It's all a gamble. A strategic play. A game of "chicken" to the death. The longer I wait to start, the more I would receive each month. However the older I am when I start, the less likely it becomes that I will live long enough to get more, cumulatively. I did the math. I break even at 79 by starting now or waiting until 67. The years beyond 79 see a gradual overall total gain but nothing substantial unless i live into my mid-80's.

The gamble on their end is that I'll die before 79. Their offering me more monthly to start at 67 reduces their total expenditures. More so if I hold out to 70. My bet then is that I'll not make 80 and if I do, I will hopefully have some additional revenue streams through investments or "side gigs".

As of June, if I earn more than an additional $2k/month through any part-time work, they'll reduce what they pay me until my income drops back under that amount. They're effectively constraining my income as a deterrent/punishment for taking my retirement early. Because it's a negative hit for them. 

There is also another rigged system in play here. I die before Jennifer, she can collect mine or hers, but not both. Effectively, a large portion of the money we invest in Social Security is absorbed. Depending on whether or when that happens, she will be in a position to choose the best of the two options, but they'll keep the remaining balance. It's highly likely that everything she and her employer ever paid into Social Security will never get to her. And that's exactly what happened to Lindas, too.

The system is similar to a life insurance policy. I have invested in a secondary life insurance policy over the past 30 years. Roughly guessing an average of $180/month or so. The possible payout has gone down annually since turning 61. Before then, it would have paid  $180k. Today it's $ 97k. When I hit 65, it'll drop to $60k. Every year, I continue to pay premiums, and the policy value decreases. After 65, I'll have put more money into the policy through insurance premiums than it will pay back out. After 70, it's an increasing net loss. Another gamble designed in favor of the house.

There's no way to "win" without losing. I get that, and it has been a safety net should something unexpected have taken me out. Now it seems time has come to revisit the benefits and cut losses as strategically as possible.