David Pogue, a prominent author in the Macintosh community, has posted a wonderful entry on his blog, reflecting on the grim view in the press on Apple from 1996, 10 years ago. And boy does it bring back memories.
Memories of Gil Ameilo's landmark 'no more wimp bullshit' comment at a communications meeting. Memories of Steve Jobs commandeering a keynote at MacWorld from under Amelio, and shortly thereafter, my coming to work to hear the news of Gil's subsequent ousting. Memories of Steve on a lone stool on the crescent shaped cement stage in the center of the campus, delivering his first message to the staff after having stepped in to help stop the bleeding.
And the memory of a phone call i got in 1996, during the Gil reign and one of the company's lowest points, from my boss at the time, advising me of yet-another round of layoffs taking place. I was traveling, on vacation actually, and I was standing in the Denver airport, about to head back to Cupertino, being told that even more of my friends and co-workers, and in a sense, more of my hope and faith, was being whittled away.
When I asked her if I was being given an option to take a package or stick around she said "No, you're not going anywhere. We'll be here to shut the lights off."
What a difference a decade makes.
Pogue’s Posts - When Apple Hit Bottom
As you probably know, Apple’s been in the news quite a bit lately. (That’s “lately,” as in, “pretty much every other month for the last five years.”)
Nowadays, Apple is a media darling. The critics like the company’s direction, and so does Wall Street.
But it wasn’t always so. This summer marked the tenth anniversary of Apple’s lowest point–a time in 1996 when the company’s profits and products were hitting bottom. (Steve Jobs’s return to the company he founded was still a year away.)
Not only was Apple NOT a media darling, it was the dog the media loved to kick. The analysts and columnists were amazingly confident that Apple would not live out the year, let alone the decade.
With a little help from the Lexis-Nexis database of all articles from all major publications, it’s my pleasure to present, for your nostalgia pleasure, some of their predictions from ten years ago:
* Fortune, 2/19/1996: “By the time you read this story, the quirky cult company…will end its wild ride as an independent enterprise.”
* Time Magazine, 2/5/96: “One day Apple was a major technology company with assets to make any self respecting techno-conglomerate salivate. The next day Apple was a chaotic mess without a strategic vision and certainly no future.”
* BusinessWeek, 10/16/95: “Having underforecast demand, the company has a $1 billion-plus order backlog….The only alternative: to merge with a company with the marketing and financial clout to help Apple survive the switch to a software-based company. The most likely candidate, many think, is IBM Corp.”
* A Forrester Research analyst, 1/25/96 (quoted in, of all places, The New York Times): “Whether they stand alone or are acquired, Apple as we know it is cooked. It’s so classic. It’s so sad.”
* Nathan Myhrvold (Microsoft’s chief technology officer, 6/97: “The NeXT purchase is too little too late. Apple is already dead.”
* Wired, “101 Ways to Save Apple,” 6/97: “1. Admit it. You’re out of the hardware game.”
* BusinessWeek, 2/5/96: “There was so much magic in Apple Computer in the early ’80s that it is hard to believe that it may fade away. Apple went from hip to has-been in just 19 years.”
* Fortune, 2/19/1996: “Apple’s erratic performance has given it the reputation on Wall Street of a stock a long-term investor would probably avoid.”
* The Economist, 2/23/95: “Apple could hang on for years, gamely trying to slow the decline, but few expect it to make such a mistake. Instead it seems to have two options. The first is to break itself up, selling the hardware side. The second is to sell the company outright.”
* The Financial Times, 7/11/97: “Apple no longer plays a leading role in the $200 billion personal computer industry. ‘The idea that they’re going to go back to the past to hit a big home run…is delusional,’ says Dave Winer, a software developer.”
Now, obviously, all of these commentators were wildly, hilariously, embarrassingly wrong. (Unless, of course, the iPod is in fact a mass delusion.)
This is why, when anyone asks me what the future of technology holds, or what kids will be bringing to school in 2016, I politely decline to answer. v
In the end, this story really isn’t about Apple–or any one company; they all have ups and downs. This story is about the journalists and commentators. It’s one thing to report what’s happening to a flailing company, and quite another to announce what’s *going* to happen. In the technology business, that’s a fool’s game.